Computershare's Margin Income Closer to the Floor Than Its Peak

Computershare suffered from falling interest rates and a mature core registry business following the global financial crisis, with underlying EPS reasonably flat between fiscal 2009 and 2020. However, we expect cost-cutting, and an expansion of the mortgage servicing business to drive an underlying EPS CAGR of around 9% over the next decade. The core registry and related services businesses, which constitute around 60% of group EBITDA, are reasonably mature and we expect flat revenue growth in real terms over the next decade as rising interest rates and margin income offsets industry contraction as shareholders are consolidated under nominee accounts. In contrast, we expect mortgage services growth to drive a revenue CAGR of around 5% for the business services division, underpinning a group revenue CAGR of 3%.