Western Union Offers Weaker-Than-Expected Guidance at Investor Day

As part of its investors day, wide-moat-rated Western Union announced guidance through 2025 that came in below our expectations and implies a somewhat rougher road over the next several years. While we had expected a revenue decline in 2023, the level of the decline inferred by the company's guidance is a bit steeper than we had anticipated, due in part to the strong dollar. Additionally, the ramp up to better growth is a little slower than we had expected, and management's margin guidance over the next few years suggests modest pressure on this front. After factoring these issues into our projections, we expect to lower our fair value estimate to $18 per share from $20.