Roche: Double Hit From Lost COVID-19 Revenue and Biosimilars in 2023; Investors Taking Myopic View

After updating our model for Roche’s full-year 2022 financial performance, foreign exchange rates, and our new assumptions for the firm’s portfolio and pipeline, we’re slightly adjusting our fair value estimates to CHF 419/$57 (from CHF 428/$57). Roche continues to trade at a steep 35% discount to our fair value estimates, and we think the market underappreciates Roche’s long-term growth potential, putting too much emphasis on the upcoming COVID-19-related sales losses in 2023 as well as recent pipeline failures. Roche saw 2% constant currency growth (1% as reported) in 2022, as newer drug launches and underlying demand for the firm’s diagnostics countered pressure from biosimilar versions of older oncology drugs (CHF 1.9 billion headwind) as well as lower COVID-19-related revenue in both divisions (amounting to a roughly CHF 1 billion headwind). Incorporating an expected CHF 5 billion decline in COVID-19-related sales and CHF 1.6 billion decline from oncology biosimilars in 2023, management expects a low-single-digit decline in sales and core earnings per share in 2023 at constant currencies. Our updated forecast for 2023 is slightly more bearish, assuming a 3% top-line decline and 4.7% decline in core EPS for the year. That said, we think fundamental growth for the firm’s underlying business looks strong, with multiple trial readouts and launches that will continue to support Roche’s wide moat.