In-Line Second Half of 2022 for Carlsberg as Cost Pressures Take Hold

Carlsberg reported few surprises in its fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results, with volume and revenue growth bang in line with our estimates, but operating profit was slightly weaker than we had anticipated. Guidance for 2023 implies a fairly wide range of operating profit development, from a 5% decline to 5% growth, but this is consistent with our existing forecast of low-single-digit growth. Although this represents a material slowdown in growth, following several years of impressive financial performance, it is to be expected in light of the pressures on consumer spending from inflation and rising interest rates. We reiterate our DKK 970 fair value estimate, and with the market value of the company having fluctuated considerably over the last 12 months, the stock now appears fairly valued. We think there is more valuation upside to Anheuser Busch InBev.