No-Moat Glanbia Sharpens Focus on More Differentiated Segments After a Year of Record Profits

No-moat Glanbia delivered stronger-than-expected full-year 2022 results, with EBITA of EUR 347 million—around EUR 50 million higher than our forecast. This was mainly the result of a hefty top-line delivery on account of a currency tailwind and exceptional pricing actions, which largely compensated for the cost inflation experienced during the year. Given this result, we increase our 2023 EBITA forecast by 10% to GBP 370 million to account for the carry-through of price increases. Net debt was also reduced by one quarter to EUR 460 million given strong cash flow generation. These updates, together with a time value of money adjustment take our fair value estimate to EUR 13 from EUR 12. Shares appear fairly valued at current levels.