Airbus Earnings: As Supply Chain Pain Shuffles Jet Delivery Timing, Fair Value up a Touch

Wide-moat Airbus reported its first-quarter 2023 results, sticking to its goal of delivering 720 jets this year. We will monitor those deliveries closely in coming months as the path Airbus must take to increase its production rates has narrowed with time and with just 127 planes out the door so far this year, Airbus is only 17.6% of the way to reach its annual deliveries target. Although the company failed to reach a similar goal last year (missing it by 39 planes) because of persistent supply chain issues, we will for the time being give the team benefit of the doubt as the company has a historical pattern of backloading its jet deliveries (and commensurate revenue and profit): in the first quarter of the three years through 2019, Airbus booked just under 17% of eventual annual commercial aircraft revenue.