Auckland Airport Earnings: Airport Returns to Profit but Still Below Cruising Altitude

Auckland International Airport’s fiscal 2023 underlying profit of NZD 148 million or NZD 10.1 cents per share, marked a return to profit but is still 46% below 2019. Passenger numbers nearly tripled from 2022, though the rebound slowed in the June half. Full-year international passengers were 67% of 2019 levels, and domestic passengers 84%. We expect passenger numbers at 2019 levels by 2025. We estimate underlying earnings of NZD 278 million in fiscal 2024, near the upper end of guidance for NZD 260 million to NZD 280 million, and we think earnings can double in the next decade. The airport restarted dividends with a NZD 4.0 cent second-half payment, and we estimate NZD 13 cents in total for fiscal 2024, at the low end of the target 70%-90% payout ratio.