Kogan.com Ltd
KGN: XASX (AUS)
Morningstar Rating for Stocks | Fair Value | Economic Moat | Capital Allocation |
---|---|---|---|
A$78.60 | Lblnn | Zhrtvfvwy |
Kogan: Margin Expansion Likely Once Economy Improves
We maintain our fair value estimate on no-moat Kogan at AUD 10.70 per share. Kogan’s first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of AUD 8 million broadly tracks our unchanged AUD 40 million fiscal 2024 adjusted EBITDA forecast. This implies a seasonally strong December quarter and trading in the second half in line with the September quarter. However, our investment thesis hinges on sales growth to accelerate beyond fiscal 2024. From fiscal 2025 we forecast Kogan’s Australian gross sales to increase at an average rate of 7% over the next decade.