Transurban: Subdued Traffic Growth; Long-Term Value Intact

We downgrade our fiscal 2024 proportional EBITDA forecast for wide-moat Transurban by a few percent as traffic volumes in the year to date are softer than we expected. Longer-term forecasts are largely unchanged—we continue to forecast a five-year EBITDA compound annual growth rate of about 7%. We maintain our AUD 12.50 per share fair value estimate and consider the stock to be fairly valued, offering a mostly unfranked yield of 4.8%.