Dai-Ichi Life Earnings: Stronger-Than-Expected Profit; MTP Overseas Profit Target Seems Optimistic

Dai-Ichi Life reported stronger-than-expected 87% year-on-year growth in fiscal 2023 (ending March 2024) adjusted profit to JPY 319.3 billion, beating the JPY 280 billion market consensus and the company’s guidance of JPY 270 billion. However, the firm’s adjusted profit guidance for fiscal 2024 looks conservative, with only a 6.5% increase to JPY 340 billion. This reaffirms our expectation for limited share price drivers in near-term earnings, apart from potentially better-than-expected investment gains. The 31% year-on-year growth in dividend per share to JPY 113 also beats the market consensus of JPY 95, partly due to the early adoption of a 40% dividend payout from 30% previously. DPS for fiscal 2024 is guided to be JPY 122, in line with the historical three-year average growth in group adjusted profit.