Company Reports

GQG Partners is a boutique manager of listed equities. As of July 2024, GQG manages around USD 156 billion for institutional, wholesale and subadvised clients.

Average earnings for the seven asset managers under our coverage—Challenger, GQG, Insignia, Magellan, Perpetual, Pinnacle, and Platinum—will likely improve over the near term to fiscal 2025, but moderate thereafter. This is partly due to our expectations for continuing net outflows, on average. While potentially lower rates in fiscal 2025 could lead to a cyclical flow uplift, any benefits may be short-lived, as asset class rebalancing activity subsides. Given the cohort’s largely average peer-relative returns, we expect their FUM share losses to exchange-traded funds and industry funds to persist. Competitive pressures are also likely to weigh on fees and earnings.

GQG Partners is a boutique manager of listed equities. As of May 2024, GQG manages around USD 150 billion for institutional, wholesale and subadvised clients.

This note replaces the original version that accompanied our report "Industry Pulse - Australian Asset Managers: 2024 Q1," published March 14, 2024. We were recently made aware of inaccuracies in the net flow data for certain unlisted managers in that original report. As for our investment conclusions, we stand by our key assessments: the fair value estimates, moat, uncertainty, capital allocation, and star ratings for our Asset Manager coverage.

We recently published our inaugural Industry Pulse: Australian Asset Managers 2024 Q1. It has come to our attention that some the detailed industry data we presented may not be accurate, namely around asset manager inflows and outflows. As far as our investment conclusions are concerned, we stand by our key assessments, namely the fair value estimates and moat, uncertainty, capital allocation, and star ratings for our asset manager coverage. Key data for the companies we cover is captured separately and directly from the relevant companies, and we have no reason to believe it is incorrect. However, while we investigate to confirm the accuracy and presentation of the detailed underlying data, we have retracted the report from our products. We will seek to reissue a corrected report, along with an explanatory accompanying note, as soon as practical.

Share prices of ASX-listed asset managers fell for most of 2023 but broadly rebounded late in the year in anticipation of lower interest rates. Stabilizing interest rates generally enhances investor risk appetite, thus boosting fund flows, asset prices, and earnings for asset managers. Globally, net annual fund flows into open-ended, money market, and exchange-traded funds turned positive in March 2023 after close to six months of net outflows. This reflects a stabilizing US federal-funds rate and an increased likelihood of rate cuts in 2024. In Australia, the prospect of cuts in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate in the near term is likely positive for flows into Australian-domiciled funds—consisting of ETFs, industry funds, and active managers.

GQG Partners is a boutique manager of listed equities. As of January 2024, GQG manages more than USD 127 billion for institutional, wholesale and subadvised clients.

Our conviction in the thesis for listed wealth managers, asset managers, and their related service providers has strengthened after gathering insights from the recent 2023 Super & Wealth Summit, hosted by the Australian Financial Review. These firms are influenced by similar business drivers and industry trends. Most derive their revenue from funds under management and/or administration, or FUMA, which are driven by asset price movements and new fund flows from clients, and management fees or commissions on these FUMA.