Iran Is Staking Everything on Controlling the Strait of Hormuz — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 0.3% to $79.14 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 6.2% to 52.53 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.2% to $14,071 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 4% to $4,319.20 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Iran Is Staking Everything on Controlling the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's leadership has made a high-stakes calculation in its showdown with President Trump: maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz is a nonnegotiable red line.

By asserting authority over a critical waterway for global crude-oil flows, Tehran is betting that its ability to inflict pain on the American economy is its best leverage to avoid future military action from the U.S. and Israel. With gasoline prices and inflation elevated, Tehran believes Trump will ultimately accept its terms ahead of fast-approaching midterm elections that could determine the future of his presidency.

Centering strategy on controlling the Strait of Hormuz is an extraordinary gamble. It assumes Trump will prefer a messy, volatile stalemate over an all-out war. In playing this card so aggressively, Tehran risks miscalculating Washington's breaking point and threatening its own economic survival.

OTHER STORIES:

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Distribution Profit Nearly Doubles on Fuel Demand, Inventory Gains

Adnoc Distribution reported a sharp jump in quarterly profit as higher fuel sales, inventory gains and stronger margins lifted earnings.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution, known as Adnoc Distribution, posted a net profit of 1.31 billion U.A.E. dirhams ($358 million) for the three months ended June 30, up 94% from 677 million dirhams in the same period a year ago. Revenue rose 53% on year to 13.2 billion dirhams.

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Siemens Energy Orders Reach Record Highs on U.S. Data-Center Demand

A wave of demand for U.S. data centers propelled Siemens Energy's ENR orders to a record high, while profits more than tripled in its fiscal third quarter.

The German maker of energy equipment said it benefited from surging global demand for electricity in the third fiscal quarter, with order intake bolstered by the U.S.

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Discovery Mining Shares Rise on High-Grade Ontario Drill Results

Discovery Mining shares rose Wednesday morning after reporting high-grade drill results across three Ontario projects, confirming that its primary gold deposits extend beyond current resource boundaries.

Shares rose 11% to 10.52 Canadian dollars ($7.48).

Chief Executive Tony Makuch said the three critical growth projects--Dome, TVZ and Owl Creek--collectively, could contribute between 250,000 and 500,000 ounces of gold production every year.

MARKET TALKS:

Lean Hogs Fall as Slaughters Rise -- Market Talk

1029 ET - Hog futures on the CME are down 1.4% as the government reports a higher number of pig slaughters. The USDA says 728,000 animals will be slaughtered this week, at an average of 281.2 pounds per animal. That's more pigs than both last week and this time last year, while the average weight per animal is slightly down from the prior week but up from the prior year. Live cattle futures are up 0.1% to $2.2805 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Oil Futures Hold Their Ground Awaiting Hormuz Agreement -- Market Talk

0913 ET - Oil futures edge up as the market waits to see if an agreement is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If a deal is made to reopen the waterway, there would likely be a temporary spike in ships leaving again, "but the fact that there is less oil trapped in the Gulf than in June suggests that the exodus will be smaller, and so prices won't fall as far as they did following the first MoU agreement," David Oxley of Capital Economics says in a note. "Meanwhile, getting tankers back in to the Gulf to collect oil and LNG will be key to bringing shut-in oil production in the region back online." WTI is up 0.1% at $75.84 a barrel and Brent is up 0.9% at $80.06. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Corn and Soybeans Lower as StoneX Forecasts Yields -- Market Talk

0910 ET - CBOT corn and soybean futures are lower premarket, this as projections on the size of the 2026 crop are released ahead of next week's WASDE report. StoneX sees U.S. corn yields at 184.8 bushels an acre--that's a 1.8 bushel an acre uptick from July's WASDE. StoneX expects soybean yields at 53 bushels an acre--unchanged from July's WASDE. Analysts say that StoneX's projections are a major factor weighing on corn in particular. The most-active corn contract is down 0.9%, while soybeans fall 0.7%. Wheat is up 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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European Gas Drops 7% Despite Tight Supply Fundamentals -- Market Talk

1445 GMT - European natural-gas prices plunge 7% in afternoon trading, with the benchmark Dutch TTF at 51.99 euros a megawatt-hour as renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war lift sentiment. Fundamentals, however, remain supportive. A prolonged heatwave across Europe is lifting cooling demand at a time when gas storage is around 57% full, well below last year's level. "In Hungary, the Paks nuclear power plant was taken offline over the weekend after cooling-water levels from the Danube River fell to their lowest in more than four decades," says Antonia Syn from Rystad Energy. "The plant normally supplies around 40% of the country's electricity." At the same time, Norwegian pipeline maintenance is curbing supply, while a drone strike on Egypt's Damietta LNG import terminal has reduced the country's regasification capacity, tightening global LNG market conditions. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Palm Oil Ends Higher Ahead of India's Festive Season -- Market Talk

1016 GMT - Palm oil closed higher. Improving demand prospects from India ahead of the festive season helped provide some underlying support to prices, Kenanga Futures analysts say. However, valuation has been pressured by overnight weakness in rival oils. Potential profit-taking after the previous session's gains, coupled with concerns over rising inventories as market surveys showed production growth in July outpaced export demand, have also weighed on market sentiment. Kenanga Futures sees support and resistance for the October futures contract at 4,640 ringgit a metric ton and 4,730 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery edged 8 ringgit higher to 4,704 ringgit a ton. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Start Session Little Changed -- Market Talk

1026 ET - U.S. natural gas futures inch up in early trading. "Even though temperatures have been above average the past month, the increases in natural gas production along with maintenance backlogged in LNG demand has kept U.S. storage levels elevated," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Traders are seeing the first half of August as "the last real demand time frame" with focus shifting to the milder fall temperatures, he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 0.2% at $2.688/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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UAE Non-Oil Growth Hits Four-Month High -- Market Talk

1020 GMT - UAE companies showed signs of recovery in July after a heavily disrupted second quarter as easing regional tensions and smoother trade flows supported business activity, says David Owen, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The UAE's Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.7 in July from 50.8 in June, marking the strongest improvement in four months after the index fell to an over five-year low. New order growth accelerated to a five-month high and export sales expanded at their fastest pace in a year, S&P says. Owen says uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep price pressures elevated and firms operating with tighter inventories and longer supply schedules. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

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LME Copper Rises Above $14,000 on Tighter Inventories Outside U.S. -- Market Talk

0822 GMT - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange climb above the $14,000 mark, supported by tightening market conditions. "Large volumes of copper have been drawn into the U.S. amid ongoing uncertainty over potential import tariffs, reducing availability elsewhere and leaving inventories outside the U.S. increasingly tight," analysts at ING say. LME inventories have fallen to multi-month lows, while the market has moved deeper into backwardation--a pricing structure in which nearby contracts trade at a premium to later-dated ones, typically reflecting strong demand for immediate supply and tight spot availability. Market watchers say the base metal could continue testing higher levels in the near term. However, any recovery in the U.S. dollar could leave prices vulnerable to profit-taking after their sharp recent rally. In early trading, three-month copper futures are flat at $14,043 a metric ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Gold Above $4,200 as Prospects of Middle East Deal Ease Inflation Fears -- Market Talk

0813 GMT - Gold prices climb above $4,200 as signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East temper fears over inflation and interest-rate hikes. New York futures rise 1.7% to $4,224 a troy ounce in early trading, up 4.5% on the week. "The retreat in oil pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 4.603% from last week's high of 4.747%, with markets paring the odds of a September Fed rate hike to about 57% from 67%," analysts at IG say. Traders now await a series of U.S. jobs data due later this week, including ​the ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Oil Rises After Settling 5% Lower, With Focus on U.S.-Iran Negotiations -- Market Talk

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August 05, 2026 11:28 ET (15:28 GMT)