Ray Dalio believes there's a 35% or even 40% chance of a civil war in the U.S.

By Louis Goss

Hedge-fund billionaire can foresee people moving to states that align with their political views while refusing to abide by rules made by federal authorities whose politics they disagree with

'We are on the brink.'Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates founder

Hedge-fund billionaire Ray Dalio believes the U.S. is "on the brink" of a civil war and sees a 35% or even 40% possibility of an internal conflict breaking out. "We are on the brink," Dalio, who started Bridgewater Associates in 1975, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Dalio, however, explained that while the civil war he envisions might not necessarily be one in which people "grab guns and start shooting," it will see a fracturing of the U.S., violently or otherwise.

He said that this could see people start moving to states that align with their political views while refusing to abide by rules made by federal authorities whose politics they disagree with.

The billionaire hedge-fund founder, nonetheless, refused to rule out the possibility of a violent conflict, as he said we "don't yet know if we will cross over into much more turbulent times."

Dalio added that he also believes the upcoming U.S. election will be the most important in his lifetime in deciding whether existential risks including artificial intelligence and climate change run out of control.

He argued the U.S. election, scheduled for November, will be a test for democracy. "Will there be an acceptance of the rules and an ability to work well under those rules?" he asked.

"Trump will follow more rightist, nationalistic, isolationist, protectionist, nonregulatory policies - and more aggressive policies to fight enemies internally and externally, including political enemies," Dalio said.

"Biden, and even more so the Democratic Party without Biden, will be more the opposite, though they, too, will play political hardball," Dalio added, who held back from pledging his support for any particular candidate.

The New York-born 74-year-old voiced concerns about U.S. government debt levels and their impacts on the price of Treasury bonds BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.

He suggested investors consider moving money into foreign markets, pointing to countries including India, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, alongside some Gulf states.

"Countries that earn more than they spend and have great balance sheets, have internal order and are neutral in the geopolitical conflicts?...?look attractive," he said.

Having attended a Taylor Swift concert in Singapore in March, Dalio said he would consider voting for the singer to become president of the U.S.

"I saw how she brought people of all sorts - and many nationalities - together. It felt like it would have been impossible to fight," Dalio said.

From the archives (November 2023): It's Election Day - and Taylor Swift wants you to vote

"I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I'd consider supporting her," the hedge-fund manager said, a point he had made in a social-media post when he attended the Singapore show in March.

In February, a survey by real-estate brokerage Redfin showed political factors are becoming increasingly influential in determining where American homebuyers decide to live, and readers interacting with MarketWatch's best-place-to-retire tool and Help Me Retire column often express a desire to be among - or segregated from - people holding particular political views.

Read on: Guns, transgender rights: The issues Trump and Biden voters care about most when deciding where to live

-Louis Goss

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05-16-24 1508ET

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