Abhinav Davuluri

Abhinav Davuluri is a strategist for Morningstar.

More From Abhinav Davuluri

We note Applied and its peers have all called for strong growth in 2021, driven by record capital expenditure levels at TSMC and Intel as well as solid memory spending. Management expects Applied’s fourth-quarter revenue to be up 34% year over year at the midpoint, with momentum persisting into 2022. Consequently, we are raising our fair value estimate to $131 per share from $125.

During the quarter, Nvidia benefited from cryptocurrency mining demand, including crypto mining processor, or CMP, sales of $266 million.

We’re raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Advanced Micro Devices to $109 per share (up from $101) on a probability-weighted basis as we await AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx.

We are raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple to $124 per share from $115 as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook due to the current 5G iPhone cycle and ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics bolstering Mac and iPad segments.

We are raising our fair value estimate as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook due to the current 5G iPhone cycle and ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics.

We remain optimistic on Intel’s IDM 2.0 strategy to get its manufacturing back on track and develop a more meaningful foundry strategy. Nonetheless, we expect the next few quarters to be challenging.

We are raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple to $98 per share from $85 as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook due to the current 5G iPhone cycle and ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics bolstering Mac and iPad segments.

We raise our fair value for no-moat AMD to $77 per share on a probability-weighted basis. We assess AMD’s standalone fair value at $67 per share. We assign a 75% probability of AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx closing, and our fair value for the combined entity would be $80 per share.

Intel reported fourth-quarter results that significantly exceeded its guidance, primarily due to stronger than expected PC demand related to the ongoing work- and learn-from-home trends stemming from COVID-19. Due to the impending CEO transition from Bob Swan to Pat Gelsinger (effective Feb. 15), management did not elaborate on its outsourcing plans or provide full-year guidance.

We are raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple to $85 per share from $71 as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook for the Mac and iPad segments due to ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics.

AMD reported strong third-quarter results that exceeded our expectations led by PC, server, and game console growth. The firm also announced it will purchase narrow-moat Xilinx in an all-stock transaction valued at $35 billion.

ARM was a wide-moat-rated firm, and we believe it is likely this cash/stock deal would enhance Nvidia’s narrow moat even further.

We are maintaining our $70 fair value estimate, as stronger near-term results and lower capital expenditure assumptions for 2020 are offset by lower long-term PC and data center CPU estimates (due to Apple shifting to internal chips for its Mac PCs and greater competition from AMD).

More About Abhinav Davuluri

Abhinav Davuluri, CFA, is a strategist for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers microprocessors, wafer manufacturing equipment, and other companies in the semiconductor space.

Before joining Morningstar in 2015, Davuluri spent two years as a process engineer for Intel.

Davuluri holds a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from the University of Michigan. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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