R.J. Hottovy

R.J. Hottovy, CFA, is a consumer strategist for Morningstar.

More From RJ Hottovy

Guest experience, menu management, off-premise sales, and operational simplification should continue to drive growth for the casual-dining chain.

Though it has improved its competitive position more than many retailers, the firm will continue to face pressure from Amazon on many of its product and service initiatives, limiting growth and margin expansion potential.

An emphasis on performance goods, improved online sales capabilities, an expanded private label assortment, and youth sports emphasis are enough to put the company on the list of retailer survivors the next 10 years.

The firm may be spending heavily, but strong grown and consumer engagement trends show these dollars are being well spent, writes Morningstar’s R.J. Hottovy.

The wide-moat company is one of the best ways to play the improving consumer disposable income trends in the region.

JAB's acquisition of the narrow-moat company could lead to international Panera locations, accelerated delivery hub openings offering a greater assortment, a wider packaged good selection in the mass merchant channel, and more.

An acquirer would probably be attracted to the narrow-moat company's industry-leading loyalty program engagement and digital sales penetration, expanding delivery capabilities, a growing at-home business, and a potential refranchising/leveraged recap play.

Though North American headwinds are unlikely to abate soon, the wide-moat company remains well positioned for the long term.

While the new Best Buy 2020 plan emphasizes growth focused on multichannel capabilities, products and services that address customer needs, and accelerated Canada and Mexico expansion, these initiatives will not be enough to overcome longer-term structural issues.

While comps are improving, but it's getting more expensive for the narrow-moat company to drive restaurant traffic.

More About RJ Hottovy

R.J. Hottovy, CFA, is a consumer strategist for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He is responsible for consumer discretionary and staples research. He has covered the consumer sector as an analyst and director of global consumer equity research for Morningstar since joining the company in 2008, and specializes in a broad range of consumer categories including restaurants, footwear and apparel retailers, consumer electronics retailers, fitness clubs, home improvement and furnishing retailers, and consumer product manufacturers.

Before joining Morningstar, Hottovy was a director and senior stock analyst for Next Generation Equity and an analyst for William Blair & Co., specializing in a wide range of retail and consumer product companies. He also spent two years at Deutsche Bank, covering waste management, water utilities, and equipment rental stocks.

Hottovy holds a bachelor’s degree in finance and a second degree in computer applications from the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated magna cum laude. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Chicago.

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