Mosaic announced it would produce lower potash and phosphate volumes in 2024 as a result of unplanned outages. After reviewing the announcement, we're maintaining our $40 fair value estimate and no-moat rating. While we see a limited impact on Mosaic's 2024 results due to lower volumes, we do not expect any longer-term impact.
Mosaic’s K3 Esterhazy potash mine eliminated its historical flooding issues and will move its potash production costs closer to its low-cost Canpotex peer.
Low-cost phosphate producers such as state-owned OCP in Morocco continue to expand capacity and could take market share from Mosaic over the long term through the pursuit of a volume-over-price strategy.
|
Metric
|
MOS
|
SQM
|
NTR
|
|---|---|---|---|
Price/Earnings (Normalized) | 5.87 | 32.14 | 8.20 |
Price/Book Value | 0.74 | 2.41 | 0.94 |
Price/Sales | 0.72 | 2.15 | 0.89 |
Price/Cash Flow | 4.89 | 21.97 | 5.68 |
|
Metric
|
MOS
|
SQM
|
NTR
|
|---|---|---|---|
Quick Ratio | 0.47 | 1.41 | 0.76 |
Current Ratio | 1.16 | 2.19 | 1.26 |
Interest Coverage | 1.91 | 9.47 | 2.57 |
|
Metric
|
MOS
|
SQM
|
NTR
|
|---|---|---|---|
Return on Assets (Normalized) | 2.98% | 0.62% | 3.68% |
Return on Equity (Normalized) | 5.63% | 1.34% | 7.77% |
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized) | 4.85% | 1.16% | 6.27% |
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1-Day Chart
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