The Federal Program That Could Help Generate $2 Trillion in Retirement Wealth

What is the long-run value of the Saver’s Match?

The Saver’s Match, which is slated to start in 2027, is a federal program that will provide eligible savers a 50% match on their first $2,000 of qualified retirement contributions each year (eligibility is based on modified adjusted gross income).

Back in January, we explored whether this initiative could help narrow America’s stubborn retirement‑savings gap.

Using the Morningstar Model of U.S. Retirement Outcomes, we simulated retirement outcomes with and without the program, focusing on the percentage gain in wealth at retirement for eligible savers. The results showed that many Gen Z and millennial savers could see a double-digit increase in wealth by retirement age.

Now, we’ve put a dollar figure on the program’s long-run impact: We’ve found that the Saver’s Match could help boost retirement savings for Americans by $2.03 trillion at retirement age.

What Is the Saver’s Match?

Starting in 2027, the Saver’s Match program will replace today’s nonrefundable Saver’s Credit with a 50% match on the first $2,000 of qualified retirement contributions for eligible savers.

The goal is to provide an additional incentive to encourage Americans to save for retirement (particularly ones who may not otherwise prioritize doing so).

Eligibility is based on modified adjusted gross income, with benefits phasing out at a modified adjusted gross income of $35,500 for single filers and $71,000 for joint filers.

Unlike the Saver’s Credit, which comes in the form of a tax credit on your return, the Saver’s Match will be deposited directly into the individual saver’s account.

How We Quantify the Impact of the Saver’s Match

This analysis extends our prior work by quantifying the long-run impact of the Saver’s Match on retirement wealth in dollars.

We incorporated the new program’s features into our simulation framework and compared projected wealth at retirement under the new policy with outcomes under the status quo.

Our projections account for the growth of both worker contributions and federal match dollars over time.

We based this analysis on the fourth behavioral scenario from our earlier work, which reflects eligible individuals starting to save or saving more to take advantage of the program.

Also, we expanded our modeling to include individuals who have not yet entered the workforce—namely, members of Generation Alpha (who were born between 2010 and 2024). To do this, we used similar behavioral and participation assumptions as we did for the youngest in the Gen Z cohort. Further, we accounted for survival rates in our estimates.

In total, we estimate that the Saver’s Match program could help generate $2.03 trillion in additional retirement wealth, in real terms at each individual saver’s retirement age (which we assume is 65).

This figure reflects the accumulation of the individual’s contributions and the federal match over decades. If we instead focus on the program’s impact in today’s dollars, the estimated increase is $761 billion.

How Do We Get to the $2 Trillion in Savings?

Realizing the full potential of these projections depends on effective outreach and implementation of the program.

It’s critical for the government and the retirement industry to promote the program to eligible individuals. Specifically, plan sponsors can play a key role by providing targeted communication to low- and moderate-income workers who are most likely to qualify.

While the full impact will ultimately depend on participation and policy stability (among other factors), the Saver’s Match has the potential to meaningfully improve retirement outcomes.