3 Undervalued Dividend Payers With Wide Moats

3 Undervalued Dividend Payers With Wide Moats
Securities In This Article
Coca-Cola Co
(KO)
Procter & Gamble Co
(PG)
General Mills Inc
(GIS)

Erin Lash: Attractive dividends abound in the consumer products realm, and given the recent erosion in shares, we think investors would be well-served to feast on these three undervalued, wide-moat names: Procter & Gamble, General Mills, and Coca-Cola.

P&G has pampered investors with a stream of dividends for the past 130 years, and with the yield hovering around 4% and our outlook that returning excess cash to shareholders will remain a priority, we think investors should add this wide-moat name to their shopping cart. While shares trade at a more than 20% discount to our $98 fair value estimate, we don't believe the recent pullback has reflected an erosion in the firm's competitive edge, but rather is due to the languishing top-line performance which has plagued operators across the industry. Moreover, we believe the firm's efforts to right-size its brand mix over the past several years will position it to focus its brand investments on the highest return opportunities and ensure that its mix better aligns with evolving consumer trends, bolstering its sales momentum and supporting the entrenched retail relationships that underlie its wide moat.

But attractive dividends aren't limited to the household and personal care space; rather investors craving dividends would also be wise to order up packaged food names, including General Mills. We think the market's confidence in this wide-moat firm's ability to restore top-line growth has faltered, considering continued softness in volume across the industry as well as skepticism around the acquisition of natural pet food company Blue Buffalo earlier this year. While the deal carries some inherent risk as General Mills enters a category in which it has limited experience, we remain confident in the firm's ability to efficiently integrate Blue Buffalo and extract cost synergies from combining these operations. Further, we don't portend its appetite for acquisitions will come at the expense of returning cash to shareholders. Given its discounted price, trading about 25% below our $59 fair value estimate and with a 4%-plus dividend yield, we think the stock provides an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

Finally, we suggest investors thirsting for dividends look to Coca-Cola, boasting a dividend yield of more than 3.5%. As one of the world's top beverage manufacturers, Coca-Cola benefits from an unmatched distribution network. And while we surmise that concerns surrounding soft price/mix have weighed on shares of late, we attribute this to a shift in geographic mix toward developing markets rather than an erosion in the pricing power afforded by Coca-Cola's substantial brand equity. Further, we don't think the firm is merely resting on its laurels, but rather is looking to drive improvement through new product innovation and distribution growth. As such, with shares trading around a 15% discount to our valuation, combined with our expectations for mid-single-digit annual growth in its dividend over our forecast, we think investors should build a position in this wide-moat name.

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About the Author

Erin Lash, CFA

Sector Director
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Erin Lash, CFA, is a sector director, AM Consumer, for Morningstar*. In addition to leading the sector team, she covers packaged food and household and personal care companies. Beyond managing a team of nine analysts and associates covering an array of consumer firms, Lash also conducts fundamental analysis of 13 multi-billion-dollar market capitalization firms in the packaged food and household and personal care space.

Before joining Morningstar in 2006, Lash spent four years as an investment analyst covering retail, transportation, and technology firms for State Farm Insurance. In this capacity, Lash analyzed financial statements, business strategy, and fundamentals of owned companies and potential investments, presenting her recommendations based on this analysis to State Farm portfolio managers for ownership consideration.

Lash holds a bachelor’s degree in finance from Bradley University’s Foster College of Business. She also holds a master’s degree in business administration, with concentrations in accounting and finance, from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Lash has completed the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation. She ranked second in the food and tobacco industry in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey in 2013, the last year the survey was conducted.

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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