Alnylam Reports Strong Q4 Results

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY reported solid fourth-quarter and full-year results highlighted by $894 million in global net product revenue in 2022, representing 35% growth over 2021. Alnylam’s results are largely tracking our forecasts, and we maintain our $199 fair value estimate. The stock is currently trading in 3-star territory, about 5% below our fair value estimate. We maintain our narrow economic moat rating and positive moat trend rating as well.

Alnylam’s narrow moat is supported by the intangible assets from its proprietary RNAi technology and lengthy patents extending to 2035. The company’s positive moat trend is based on the continued progression of its diversified drug pipeline for many rare diseases with high unmet needs, which will likely support pricing power if the drug candidates receive approval.

Amvuttra, which received Food and Drug Administration approval in June 2022 for hereditary ATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy, is continuing its strong launch with over $68 million in sales by year-end. Alnylam has seen a 30% increase in its prescriber base since it launched, which shows that Amvuttra is expanding the opportunity for the company’s transthyretin franchise.

Alnylam ended 2022 with $2.2 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, which puts it in a healthy financial position. Given its many late-stage trials in progress and efforts to commercially expand Oxlumo and Leqvio, we forecast Alnylam will remain unprofitable until 2025. We expect collaboration partnerships, such as its agreements with Regeneron and Novartis, to mitigate the hefty operating expenses required to put candidates through clinical development.

Alnylam received acceptance of the supplemental new drug application for Onpattro for the treatment of the cardiomyopathy of ATTR amyloidosis. The FDA expects to make an approval decision in October; we assign a 95% probability of approval in our base case.