Coinbase: Reducing Fair Value Estimate as Cryptocurrency Prices Collapse

Key Morningstar Metrics for Coinbase Global

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $150.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : Very High

Cryptocurrency market conditions continue to weaken, with total market capitalization falling to just over $2 trillion on June 25, down more than 50% from the late 2025 high. The severity of the decline puts further pressure on Coinbase Global COIN, which already saw weak results in the first quarter.

Why it matters: While Coinbase’s success in expanding into new businesses like stablecoins has diversified its revenue, the company is still heavily exposed to cryptocurrency prices through its core trading business. Coinbase’s shares have struggled in 2026, falling more than 35% so far this year.

• The poor performance is justified, as without a recovery in cryptocurrency prices, Coinbase could find itself unprofitable in 2026, particularly if losses on the firm’s cryptocurrency investments are included.

The bottom line: As we incorporate current market conditions into our model, we are lowering our fair value estimate for no-moat Coinbase to $150 from $160. Despite the steep correction this year, we still see the shares as fairly valued at the current price.

• The decrease in our fair value estimate is entirely from lower cryptocurrency trading revenue as we adjust our model to reflect recent market movements.
• This is offset by higher stablecoin revenue growth, as we have increased both our stablecoin market capitalization projections and our expected market share for Coinbase and Circle’s USDC, which we expect to benefit from recent regulatory changes.

Long view: Despite Coinbase’s current predicament, the firm’s position is not completely bleak. Its partnership with stablecoin issuer Circle is both lucrative and functionally indefinite. We also like its “everything exchange” strategy to broaden the trading products it offers its users

• While still in the very early stages of this expansion, we think it is likely that the nature of Coinbase’s users will make it receptive to speculative products like prediction contracts and perpetual futures.