CureVac’s Pipeline Progress on mRNA Candidates Continues; $15.40 FVE, Shares Undervalued

CureVac CVAC is continuing to make progress on its mRNA pipeline candidates. The company reported positive extended preliminary data from its ongoing Phase 1 clinical programs in COVID-19 and seasonal flu, which are in collaboration with wide-moat GSK. In COVID-19, the monovalent modified mRNA construct, CV0501, successfully boosted antibody titers against BA.1 and ancestral variants in adults age 65 and above. In flu, the monovalent modified mRNA construct, Flu-SV-mRNA, elicited antibodies approximately 2.3 times those of the licensed vaccine comparator in adults age 60-80 years. This data is encouraging, and CureVac and GSK are continuing to advance these mRNA candidates to the next stages of clinical development.

We maintain our $15.40 per share fair value estimate, no-moat rating, stable moat trend, and Extreme Uncertainty Rating for this clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. CureVac’s stock is trading at an attractive entry point (in 4-star territory) for long-term investors.

CureVac’s Extreme Uncertainty Rating is due to its early-stage pipeline and lack of approved products, which contributes to a range of potential outcomes. At this early stage, a no-moat rating is appropriate. We see significant uncertainty related to regulatory approvals for CureVac’s pipeline. We also believe there is uncertainty around CureVac’s defenses against other novel mRNA vaccine makers, due to Moderna and BioNTech’s first-mover status in the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine market.

CureVac’s ability to successfully launch differentiated mRNA therapies beyond COVID-19, ranging from other prophylactic vaccines to oncology treatments and molecular therapies, will be key to the firm’s ability to establish a moat in the future.