Morningstar

Moncler Delivers Solid Growth in Q4, China Especially Impressive

Revenue came in at EUR 2.6 billion and operating profit at EUR 774.5 million, both around 4% higher than our estimates.

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Securities In This Article
Moncler SpA
(MONC)

We don’t expect to materially change our EUR 41.50 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Moncler MONC as the company reported full-year results a bit ahead of our and consensus estimates. Revenue came in at EUR 2.6 billion and operating profit at EUR 774.5 million, both around 4% higher than our estimates. Operating margin reached 29.8%, up 30 basis points from the prior year and matching our forecasts. Both Moncler brand and Stone Island brand revenue exceeded expectations.

Moncler brand revenue was up 16% at constant exchange rates in the last and most important fourth quarter, an acceleration from 12% delivered in the third quarter, and largely ahead of peers (excluding Hermes). Growth in Korea and Japan was strong and sales in China, remarkably, were only flattish despite lockdowns (sales in Asia were up 12% at constant exchange rates for the Moncler brand in the quarter). Sales in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa accelerated 30% in the quarter versus 16% in the third quarter, thanks to strong local demand. Revenue trends in the Americas continued to decelerate slightly, up 5% at constant currencies in the quarter (6% in the third quarter), as Americans shifted purchases abroad (sales to the American cohort were up in the double digits). Moncler highlighted strong recovery in China this year (similar to peers), as restrictions are lifted; continuing strong demand from Japan and Korea; and demand from the Americas decelerating a bit in February.

Retail sales outperformed wholesale, up 22% for the year (6% growth in wholesale), with 15% increase in comparable store sales. Sales per square meter were up 9% to EUR 34,200 (with EUR 40,000 remaining an ambition). Overall, with 19% constant-currency growth, we believe Moncler continued outperforming the industry’s pace. Stone Island revenue reached EUR 401 million, ahead of our forecast for EUR 357 million, up 28% at constant exchange rates, helped by conversion of wholesale operations in Korea and Japan to retail.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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About the Author

Jelena Sokolova, CFA

Senior Equity Analyst
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Jelena Sokolova, CFA, is a senior equity analyst, Europe, for Morningstar*. She covers the consumer discretionary/luxury goods sector. She is a lead analyst for the sector, performing in-depth fundamental analysis and DCF modeling resulting in investment ideas tailored to long-term investors and analyzing the durability of company competitive advantages based on Morningstar proprietary “moat” methodology. Since 2023 she is a member of the Moat Committee, assessing competitive strengths across sectors.

Before joining Morningstar in 2016, Sokolova worked as a senior equity analyst at CE Asset Management in Zurich covering European large caps. Having started as an analyst for CE Asset Management office in Riga in 2010, Sokolova got promoted to a Senior Analyst position in 2013 covering European Large cap stocks with a generalist focus, reporting to CE Asset Management Investment Committee.

Sokolova holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from the Banking Institution of Higher Education, Riga. She also holds a a master's degree in international business from Riga International School of Economics and Business Administration. She also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

* Morningstar UK Ltd (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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