Netflix Badly Misses Subscriber Growth Goal

We are retaining our narrow moat rating and our fair value estimate for the firm.

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Netflix Inc
(NFLX)

Netflix reported worse-than-expected subscriber growth in both the international (4.47 million net adds versus guidance of 5.00 million) and U.S. segments (0.67 million net adds, versus guidance of 1.20 million). Management could not explain the miss and instead pointed out their poor record of projecting net adds over the last two and half years. Netflix continues to expand its streaming base, ending the quarter with more than 124.35 million global paid subscribers, up from 99.04 million a year ago. Revenue of $3.91 billion came in line with our $3.92 billion estimate. Domestic streaming monthly revenue per paid member came in at $11.37, up 13% year over year and ahead of our $11.25 estimate. For international streaming, revenue of $1.92 billion was slightly below our $1.95 billion estimate as monthly revenue per paid member came in at $9.69, up 17% year over year.

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About the Author

Neil Macker, CFA

Senior Equity Analyst
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Neil Macker, CFA, is a senior equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers media/entertainment and video game publishers.

Before joining Morningstar in 2014, Macker was a senior equity research associate for FBR & Co., where he covered the telecommunications services sector. Previously, he was an associate equity analyst for R.W. Baird and completed the summer associate rotational program at UBS Investment Bank. Before attending business school, Macker held analytical roles at Corporate Executive Board and Nextel.

Macker holds a bachelor’s degree from Carleton College, where he graduated cum laude, and a master’s degree in business administration from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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