Morningstar

Oil and Gas Sector Likely to Fare Well Under Trump

A lighter hand in environmental controls bodes well for oil and gas producers.

For global energy markets, the potential knock-on impacts of a Donald Trump presidency could be meaningful in a few areas. With respect to U.S. oil and gas producers, we can say that the tail risk for regulation of hydraulic fracturing and methane emissions is now somewhat lower. Thus far, the Environmental Protection Agency has maintained that the systemic environmental impact of hydraulic fracturing is benign. A Trump-led EPA is less likely to reverse this view than a Hillary Clinton-led EPA. More tangibly, certain high-environmental-impact upstream segments could benefit from a lighter touch, such as sand mining to supply hydraulic fracturing proppant. Overall, however, state and local governments rather than federal authorities have had the lion’s share of impact on upstream economics.

Additionally, exploration and production firms producing in areas with disadvantaged transportation economics due to incomplete pipeline infrastructure could benefit if Trump-led regulatory agencies accelerate approval of new projects (for example, the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline, which would service the Bakken). We also believe the likelihood that pipelines carrying Canadian heavy oil to the United States, such as Keystone XL, will proceed has increased, which could address the potential takeaway issues that loomed on the horizon for Alberta’s oil producers. However, Trump’s desire for the U.S. government to capture a bigger piece of the profits could be a barrier to breaking ground on new pipeline infrastructure.

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About the Author

Allen Good, CFA

Director
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Allen Good, CFA, is a director, Europe, for Morningstar*. Based in Amsterdam, he covers the oil and gas industries as well as manages a team of multi-industry analysts. He is also chair of the Morningstar Research Services Economic Moat Committee, a group of senior members of the equity research team responsible for reviewing all Economic Moat ratings issued by Morningstar. In this role, he is responsible for ensuring consistent application of Morningstar’s Economic Moat methodology across sectors and regions as well as updating and revising the methodology. His specialty is global integrated oils such as Exxon, Chevron and Shell and US independent refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum. He also contributes to developing hydrocarbon price and petroleum product margin forecasts used in valuation models.

Before joining Morningstar in 2008, He performed merger and acquisition advisory work for a middle-market investment bank. Before that, he spent several years at Black & Decker in various operational roles, primarily focused on manufacturing and distribution.

Good holds a bachelor’s degree in business from the University of Tennessee and a master’s degree in business administration from Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

* Morningstar Holland BV (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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