Strong Dollar Weighs on P&G, But Wide Moat Intact

We’re lowering our fair value estimate for Procter & Gamble due to the negative impact of currencies, but the firm’s underlying business is gaining traction and shares look modestly undervalued.

Securities In This Article
Kimberly-Clark Corp
(KMB)
Procter & Gamble Co
(PG)

While

Excluding foreign currency rates and one-time charges (including a $0.26 per share impairment related to its battery business), sales ticked up 2%, driven by higher prices and favorable product and geographic mix, and operating margins contracted 60 basis points to 20.2%. We still believe efforts to bring new products to market that prove valuable to consumers are paying off. In fact,

From a category perspective, fabric and home care and baby, feminine, and family care proved bright spots, with underlying sales up 3% and 4%, respectively. However, beauty remains a challenge; segment organic sales ticked down 1%. As such, we view the recent appointment of David Taylor to the helm of this business (while he also continues to run the global health and grooming operations) favorably--a fresh perspective might be just what is needed to put this business on more stable ground. Olay is still a struggle, though Pantene continues to improve, posting seven straight months of market share gains. We aren’t blind to the fact, though, that the performance in this category could prove lumpy given the fierce competitive dynamics of the U.S. hair care space.

P&G also disclosed that to date, 35 brands (including the pet-care and battery business) have been sold or discontinued or will be consolidated, out of the 90-100 it plans to shed. We continue to believe that P&G's efforts to focus on core brands will aid financial performance without sacrificing scale and negotiating leverage with retailers.

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About the Author

Erin Lash, CFA

Sector Director
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Erin Lash, CFA, is a sector director, AM Consumer, for Morningstar*. In addition to leading the sector team, she covers packaged food and household and personal care companies. Beyond managing a team of nine analysts and associates covering an array of consumer firms, Lash also conducts fundamental analysis of 13 multi-billion-dollar market capitalization firms in the packaged food and household and personal care space.

Before joining Morningstar in 2006, Lash spent four years as an investment analyst covering retail, transportation, and technology firms for State Farm Insurance. In this capacity, Lash analyzed financial statements, business strategy, and fundamentals of owned companies and potential investments, presenting her recommendations based on this analysis to State Farm portfolio managers for ownership consideration.

Lash holds a bachelor’s degree in finance from Bradley University’s Foster College of Business. She also holds a master’s degree in business administration, with concentrations in accounting and finance, from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Lash has completed the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation. She ranked second in the food and tobacco industry in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey in 2013, the last year the survey was conducted.

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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