What Happens if OpenAI Delays Its IPO to 2027?

It was supposed to be the year of the mega IPO. But OpenAI may throw a wrench in that plan. “We need OpenAI and Anthropic to go public so we can start to see other software IPOs come to market,” says Brian White, co-head of technology investment banking at Piper Sandler. “The market is now expecting it, so it’s not a matter of if—just when.”

After disclosing last month that it had already confidentially submitted draft IPO documents to the SEC, concerns about the stock market and the company’s growing losses have led OpenAI executives to consider delaying until 2027, according to The New York Times.

While a number of factors are shaping each IPO contender’s ultimate timeline, whatever OpenAI decides will have an impact on everyone else. Let’s consider three options.

Scenario A: OpenAI Delays and Anthropic Goes First

If OpenAI delays its IPO, it would cement rival Anthropic’s opportunity to leap first and reap the benefits. “The company that goes first gets to define ‘the playing field’—which companies are comparable, what is the valuation, what are the key metrics and measures of success,” explains Lise Buyer, a partner and founder at IPO advisory firm Class V Group. “The competitor either has to follow that lead or clearly explain to potential investors why they are different and should be treated differently.”

Anthropic is already ahead in the valuation race, reaching $965 billion in the spring shortly after OpenAI hit $852 billion. Going public first would give Anthropic’s valuation the chance to get even farther ahead.

Having a liquid stock would also help Anthropic with hiring and M&A, giving prospective employees and acquisition targets access to real liquidity. For enterprise customers, going public could boost confidence in the company as they’d gain access to regular financial disclosures.

But this scenario wouldn’t necessarily be all doom and gloom for OpenAI. “Going first can be an advantage or disadvantage,” Buyer says. “The second can learn from the challenges the first faced during the process.”

Scenario B: OpenAI Delays—and so Does Anthropic

Anthropic’s IPO timing doesn’t entirely depend on OpenAI, but it’s at least a consideration. “The delay [could] give Anthropic breathing room to prove that Claude can hold ground” before going public, says Harrison Rolfes, senior analyst at PitchBook covering private companies. “The better play would be Anthropic not timing their IPO to OpenAI’s, but to Claude’s capabilities and resolution with the government, so that the market will price the stock on moat and not on the sequence.”

A delay could raise questions about OpenAI’s financials, and more broadly about the economics of artificial intelligence. In turn, if concerns that the segment is overvalued and valuations are inflated spread, it could cause other companies to pause their IPO plans.

“If OpenAI delays its IPO to 2027, it will cost them the most because they have the most to lose,” Rolfes said. “They are under capital pressure today, and they need public markets to give them the capital to support their burn.”

Scenario C: OpenAI Doesn’t Delay and Doesn’t Hit a $1 Trillion Valuation

There’s still the possibility that OpenAI stops overthinking and pulls the trigger at a more moderate price. CEO Sam Altman is reportedly hoping for a $1 trillion valuation at IPO, but with concerns about the company’s profitability, that may be a challenge. Nevertheless, investors say OpenAI could still have a path to reach that milestone once public.

“There’s a universe where OpenAI can become a company like Google, Apple, Microsoft, or Amazon, and what they’re doing today is not abnormal for a startup. They’re making a lot of bets,” says David Yakobovitch, GP at DataPower Capital, which is an investor in OpenAI. “Not every bet is going to pay off, and to become IPO-ready, all companies have to rein in costs.”

Over the past few months, OpenAI has been refocusing. In April, it deprecated Sora, its video-generation app, and internally, it has reportedly begun putting a larger emphasis on signing up enterprise clients. It has prioritized Codex, its AI code generator application and answer to Anthropic’s popular Claude Code.

But deciding to list this year could put even more pressure on the company to further focus and cut costs. “I think the $1 trillion valuation is probably the toughest pill to swallow right now,” said Yakobovitch.