Carlsberg's Q4 Broadly In Line; Raising Our Margin Estimates and Valuation on SAIL27 Targets

Carlsberg reported decent fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 figures. Volume was marginally ahead of our forecasts, margins held up well in spite of inflation in raw material costs, and the balance sheet ended the year healthier than it began. Management also released a new five-year strategic plan, which contained few surprises, but expectations of continued margin expansion are pleasing. Although medium-term financial guidance is broadly in line with our existing forecasts, we are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 965 from DKK 895 due to the time value of money and to slightly higher growth estimates in roughly equal measure.