UnitedHealth Guides Slightly Below Our Expectations at Investor Day; No FVE Change

At its annual investor meeting, UnitedHealth maintained its 2022 guidance and gave its initial outlook for 2023, both of which are still slightly below our expectations. While we may tinker with our near-term assumptions a bit based on the company's investor day announcements, our $426 fair value estimate will likely not change materially. The company's narrow-moat rating appears intact as well, which is a similar view that we have for all of the managed care companies we cover. Although these companies appear to be benefiting from a benign period of policy risk, currently, our narrow moat ratings reflect the long-term policy risks that could eventually emerge, particularly in medical insurance and pharmacy benefit management.