Hewlett Packard Enterprise Reaffirms Strategy at 2022 Analyst Day; We Keep No-Moat Rating, $14 FVE

We maintain our $14 fair value estimate for Hewlett Packard Enterprise following its 2022 analyst day. It reaffirmed its focus on HPE GreenLake, software, services, and recurring revenue, and a commitment to expand profitability and cash flow. We agree with the firm’s pivot into an as-a-Service, or aaS, model, but continue to retain mild skepticism about some of its targets, particularly against the near-term market backdrop, which we view as challenging. Still, we maintain our long-term forecasts, and note these imply growth rates in line with management’s updated model. We view shares as fairly valued for the no-moat company.