IQVIA Faces Near-Term Macro Disruptions Causing a FVE Cut to $268, but Long-Term Outlook Is Strong

Narrow-moat IQVIA is experiencing some operational challenges caused by the global macroeconomic environment, including foreign exchange headwinds, wage inflation, ongoing disruptions related to the Ukraine-Russia war, and reoccurring lockdowns in China. Management decreased its 2022 revenue guidance by about 0.7% at the midpoint and lowered 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance by roughly 0.75% at the midpoint. We have revised our near-term forecasts to account for continued macro disruptions, and we have slightly lowered our fair value estimate to $268 per share, down from $276. Nevertheless, we continue to have a positive overall outlook for IQVIA and it remains well-positioned for long-term growth. The stock is trading at an attractive entry point for long-term investors in 4-star territory.