Nexstar Ends 2022 With in Line Q4 Results; 2023 Return to Retrans Growth Could Be Short-Lived

Nexstar posted an in line end to 2022 as fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA met FactSet consensus projections. As projected, fourth-quarter political ad revenue jumped to $265 million from $19 million a year ago, as full-year revenue of $506 million set a record for a midterm election year and came within 1% of the 2020 presidential year. However, core advertising continued to struggle, down 9% when excluding the impact of the CW, which was acquired in October. We expect core advertising to remain challenged in 2023 due to lower ad budgets and continued cord-cutting. We are maintaining our $205 fair value estimate.