Carrier Earnings: 2023 Guidance Maintained; Acquisition/Divestiture Announcements Take Center Stage

We don't expect to materially change our $48 per share fair value estimate for shares of Carrier following its first-quarter earnings release (save, for perhaps, a time value of money adjustment). As noted in our other April 26 analyst note on the announced Viessmann acquisition, we also don't expect an immediate fair value adjustment related to the announced deal. We see a pathway for the Viessmann transaction to at least be valuation neutral, but, in our view, there is little room for error. We're giving narrow-moat Carrier the benefit of the doubt for now, although we may revisit our valuation assumptions as we learn more about the business.