Newmont Earnings: Solid Result Driven by Higher Gold Prices and Sales Volumes

After no-moat Newmont lowered guidance when it released 2023 results, we anticipated a better 2024 for the company. So far this is the case, with the first quarter in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA of USD 1.7 billion increased 71% from 2023. Higher prices, along with increased sales volumes driven by the acquisition of Newcrest in November 2023, more than offset higher unit costs. Adjusted net profit after taxes of USD 630 million roughly doubled. However, because of the increased share count due to the Newcrest purchase, per-share amounts are a more accurate portrayal of its performance. Adjusted EPS of USD 0.55 rose 38% compared with the first quarter of 2023 and is broadly in line with our 2024 EPS estimate of USD 2.36. We continue to forecast 2024 attributable gold sales of about 6.9 million ounces. Sales volumes are likely to be weighted to the second half of the year as its Peñasquito, Ahafo, and 40%-owned Pueblo Viejo mines increase production after various travails last year. The USD 0.25—about AUD 0.38—per share dividend payable in June is down from the USD 0.40 (AUD 0.62) paid last year but in line with its updated quarterly dividend policy. We forecast 2024 dividends of USD 1 per share, or about AUD 1.54, for a 2.3% forward yield.