Ionis Earnings: Following In-Line Quarter, We Raise Fair Value Estimate to $69 on Angelman Potential

Narrow-moat Ionis reported second-quarter results that put the firm on track to meet our expectations for the year, and we're raising our fair value estimate to $69 from $62 after incorporating the recent positive phase 2 data in neurodevelopmental disorder Angelman syndrome. We expect Ionis to see a more than $500 million net loss in 2024, as investments in clinical development and supporting new drug launches outweigh royalties from partner Biogen on SMA drug Spinraza as well as collaboration and milestone revenues. We think this positions Ionis well to meet current guidance of more than $1.7 billion in cash remaining at the end of the year. We expect Ionis to turn to a profit in 2027 as several drugs should be well into their launches by this time, including polyneuropathy drug Wainua (now launching in the US with partner AstraZeneca), hereditary angioedema drug donidalorsen (to launch in 2025), and rare lipid disorder drug olezarsen (to launch in December and potentially add a broader hypertriglyceridemia indication in 2026).