Aurora Earnings: Shares Rally on First-Quarter Results, but We Don’t See Enough Upside for the Risk

We don't expect to materially change our fair value estimates of $9.50 and CAD 13 per share for no-moat Aurora Cannabis after the release of its fiscal 2025 first-quarter results. Shares were up a midteens percentage intraday before closing up 6%. Although the results had a lot of positives, there weren't that many surprises in our view. Moreover, we continue to see significant risk that drives our Extreme Morningstar Uncertainty Rating. Thus, while shares trade about 35% below our fair value estimate, we don't see enough margin of safety at this time, preferring the risk-adjusted upside offered by no-moat US multistate operators Curaleaf and Green Thumb.