New Fortress Earnings: Delays in FLNG Asset Drive Earnings Miss but Shares Remain Undervalued

No-moat New Fortress disappointed markets, missing guided EBITDA and PitchBook consensus by 56% and 31%, respectively. The miss was driven by the delay of FLNG 1, a massive source of growth, which was originally supposed to come online in the second quarter but achieved its first gas in July. Additionally, that unit is now expected to reach its name plate capacity of 69 trillion British thermal units, or tBtus, per year in September meaning the previously guided EBITDA can only be hit in the fourth quarter and for 2025. As a result of the update, we are reducing our fair value to $30 from $35 driven by the delay and higher debt costs. Shares have become deeply undervalued as investors appear to be missing the opportunities New Fortress has in 2026 and beyond.