Company Reports

The US Department of Justice, joined by most US states, filed a widely anticipated lawsuit against Live Nation, alleging that ownership of Ticketmaster combined with the firm’s dominance in concert promotion suppresses competition. The lawsuit seeks to break up the company. We expect a resolution will take many years and have many twists and turns along the way. The myriad ways the case could proceed and the relatively small negative impact we’d expect from worst-case scenarios result in us maintaining our $105 fair value estimate and reiterating our High Uncertainty Rating.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 338 concert venues that hosted over 50,000 events and 145 million fans in 2023. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 620 million tickets for over 10,000 clients in 2023. The firm is facing an antitrust lawsuit that seeks to break up the company's ticketing and concert promotions businesses, but we don't expect the outcome to have a material impact on operations or valuation.

Live Nation’s first-quarter results were excellent, with sales up more than 20% year over year and adjusted operating income up 15%. Concerts and sponsorship were the strongest segments, and the firm’s bookings and commitments bode very well for the full year. Perhaps as important as the results, however, is the potential US Department of Justice lawsuit that would allege antitrust violations. Management addressed the DOJ investigation at the outset of its earnings call and said that it is set to begin discussions with senior DOJ leadership. This regulatory risk is a factor in our High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for Live Nation, but we are not accounting for an outcome in our fair value estimate, which remains $105.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 338 concert venues that hosted over 50,000 events and 145 million fans in 2023. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 620 million tickets for over 10,000 clients in 2023. The firm has now exceeded prepandemic revenue levels in each of its three segment (concerts, ticketing, and sponsorship), and we project continuing growth over the next five years.

As narrow-moat Live Nation’s fourth-quarter results demonstrated, consumers still yearn for live events. We think growth will continue but at a slower rate, assuming further deceleration in inflation through 2024 and the gradual reversion to prepandemic consumer behavior. On the ticketing front, total tickets sold continued to increase, driven mainly by a higher number of events. Within sponsorship, ad spending remained strong, but we do expect growth deceleration going forward. We are maintaining our $105 fair value estimate.

Demand for live events further strengthened during the third quarter and drove impressive top-line growth and margin expansion for Live Nation Entertainment. Tickets sold year to date for Live Nation shows already exceed the full-year count for 2022. On the ad or sponsorship front, the firm has already received full commitments for 2023, with various multiyear agreements, including the recently announced deal with Mastercard, paving the way for ad revenue growth in 2024 and beyond. We are maintaining our $105 fair value estimate. The shares of narrow-moat Live Nation remain attractive, in our view.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 338 concert venues that hosted over 43,000 events and 121 million fans in 2022. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 550 million tickets for over 12,000 clients in 2022. The firm is on pace to exceed prepandemic 2019 revenue levels in each of its three segment (concerts, ticketing, and sponsorship), and we project growth beyond precoronavirus levels over the next five years.

Live Nation benefited once again from the ongoing demand growth for live events as second-quarter revenue jumped by 27% year over year. Management touted the strength of 2023 demand, with over 117 million tickets sold to date for shows, tracking 20% ahead of 2022 at the same point. Despite the relatively weak global ad market, over 90% of the planned sponsorship for 2023 is already booked with double-digit growth. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $105.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 235 concert venues that hosted over 40,000 events and nearly 98 million fans in 2019. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 485 million tickets for over 12,000 clients in 2019. The firm is on pace to exceed 2019 revenue levels in each of its three segment (concerts, ticketing, and sponsorship) and we project further growth beyond precoronavirus levels over the next five years.

Narrow-moat Live Nation started off 2023 with a strong first quarter buoyed by all of the firm's markets being open for the first time since the pandemic. Management continues to tout the strength of 2023 demand, with over 90 million tickets sold to date for shows, tracking 20% ahead of 2022 at the same point. Despite the relatively weak global ad market, over 80% of the planned sponsorship for 2023 is already booked. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $105. While shares are trading at a discount, the headline risks for Live Nation remain high as the recent ticketing snafus and fee increases have bolstered the demand for increased regulatory oversight in the United States and other countries.

Live Nation posted a strong end to an impressive 2022 that saw the firm exceed prepandemic levels in terms of events, fans, and fee-bearing tickets sold. Management remains very positive about 2023, disclosing that ticket sales are pacing 20% ahead of the same point in 2022. While inflation may damp demand from the marginal concertgoer, there are still several artists who delayed or canceled tours over the last few years that fans are looking forward to attending. We are maintaining our $105 fair value estimate. While the shares are trading at a discount, the headline risks for Live Nation remain as the political and fan blowback from the Taylor Swift presale debacle reinvigorated calls for increased regulatory oversight.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 235 concert venues that hosted over 40,000 events and nearly 98 million fans in 2019. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 485 million tickets for over 12,000 clients in 2019. The firm is on pace to exceed 2019 revenue levels in each of its three segment (concerts, ticketing, and sponsorship) and we project further growth beyond precoronavirus levels over the next five years.

Live Nation remains on track to return or even beat its prepandemic levels as the firm posted its highest attendance quarter ever. Festival attendance was very strong in the quarter, up 40% versus the same quarter in 2019. Management is very positive on growth continuing in 2023, disclosing that tickets sales paced double-digits ahead of 2022. While the inflation will likely dampen demand from the marginal concertgoer, there are still a number of artists that delayed or canceled tours in 2020 or 2021 that fans are looking forward to attending. The recent verified fan presale for the 2023 Taylor Swift tour exemplifies this pent-up demand. We are maintaining our narrow moat and our fair value estimate of $105.

Live Nation's focus on returning to pre-pandemic levels remains on track with over 100 million tickets sold for 2022 shows, ahead of the same point in 2019. While the U.S. and the U.K. continued to drive growth, Europe and Mexico contributed five million of the six additional million concert goers in the quarter. Management is very positive on growth in the second half with $3.2 billion in event related deferred revenue for Live Nation concerts. We are maintaining our FVE of $105.

Live Nation’s 2022 focus on returning to pre-pandemic levels appears on track with over 70 million tickets sold for 2022 shows, 36% above the same point in 2019, and 90% of planned sponsorship for the year already booked. Both the level of demand and supply for live music continue to expand despite limited activity in certain markets. The rebound remains leveraged to the U.S. and the U.K., which collectively accounted for 80% of attendees in the quarter, though the share dropped sequentially from 90% in the fourth quarter. We keep our narrow moat and raise our fair value estimate to $105 from $100 as we now project a higher revenue rebound in 2022.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 235 concert venues that hosted over 40,000 events and nearly 98 million fans in 2019. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 485 million tickets for over 12,000 clients in 2019. While 2020 was a challenging year, we expect that the reopening of venues in 2021 and pent-up demand for fans and artists will help the firm reach its 2019 revenue level by 2022.

Live Nation’s focus on a “return to scale” over the second half continued to work as fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat FactSet consensus expectations. Both the level of demand and supply for live music expanded despite limited activity in certain markets. The rebound remained leveraged to the U.S. and the U.K. which accounted for 90% of attendees. While management didn’t provide specific guidance, the firm projects 2022 revenue will exceed the 2019 level with strong growth in sponsorship revenue.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 235 concert venues that hosted over 40,000 events and nearly 98 million fans in 2019. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 485 million tickets for over 12,000 clients in 2019. While 2020 was a challenging year, we expect that the reopening of venues in 2021 and pent-up demand for fans and artists will help the firm reach its 2019 revenue level by 2022.

Live Nation’s quarterly results rallied strongly versus last year as management’s focus on a “return to scale” over the summer worked to perfection. Both levels of demand for and supply of live music continue to expand despite limited activity for the firm in Europe and other international markets. The rebound was heavily levered to the U.S. and the U.K. which accounted for 95% of attendees and 90% of fee-bearing tickets versus 75% and 80%, respectively, in the third quarter of 2019. While we remain concerned about the lingering threat of new lockdown restrictions due to the spread of the Delta variant, the firm appears to be on track to a recovery to pre-pandemic levels. We are maintaining our narrow moat and plan to raise our $78 fair value estimate to account for the increasing strength of the pipeline and higher audience willingness to return than we expected.

Live Nation is highly focused on live entertainment at venues ranging from intimate clubs to large stadiums. The firm controls over 235 concert venues that hosted over 40,000 events and nearly 98 million fans in 2019. Ticketmaster, the firm’s ticketing platform, sold over 485 million tickets for over 12,000 clients in 2019. While 2020 was a challenging year, we expect that the reopening of venues in 2021 and pent-up demand for fans and artists will help the firm reach its 2019 revenue level by 2022.