Company Reports

Micron Technology reported eye-watering May-quarter results, beating revenue and earnings guidance by 24% and 31%, respectively. Revenue rose 346% year over year to $41 billion, non-GAAP gross margin rose to 85% (39% a year ago), and guidance implies further growth and margin expansion.

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.

Micron Technology reported astonishing February-quarter results and May-quarter guidance. February-quarter earnings beat guidance by 45%, and earnings guidance for the May quarter doubled FactSet consensus estimates.

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.

We've updated our Micron Technology valuation and model ahead of the firm's fiscal second-quarter (ending in February) results, to be reported on March 18.

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.

Micron's October-quarter results were strong, and January-quarter guidance was even better. At the midpoints, management is guiding sequentially to 37% revenue growth, 1,120 basis points of gross margin expansion, and 76% EPS growth.

Micron Technology's August-quarter results exceeded its updated guidance from mid-August, with revenue rising 46% year over year to $11.3 billion. Management guided for more than 40% year-over-year growth in the October quarter. High-bandwidth memory quarterly revenue hit $2 billion.

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.

Micron Technology raised its fiscal fourth quarter (August-end) guidance, citing stronger dynamic-random-access-memory, or dram, pricing. The new guidance implies $500 million more revenue (new midpoint $11.2 billion) and 250 basis points more non-GAAP gross margin (new midpoint 44.5%).

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.

Micron Technology's May-quarter results handily beat management guidance for growth and profitability. Revenue rose 37% year over year to $9.3 billion, inclusive of 50% sequential growth for high-bandwidth memory. August-quarter guidance implies continuing strong growth.

We maintain our $100 fair value estimate for shares of no-moat Micron Technology after it reported solid fiscal second-quarter results. Revenue came within the guidance range, while adjusted EPS beat guidance as well as our model estimates. Management guided to robust third-quarter growth, supported by improved DRAM demand, especially from data centers and consumer artificial intelligence applications. Looking beyond, we see high-bandwidth memory as a key growth driver. We account for a greater mix of DRAM revenue over the medium term, driven primarily by HBM and data center demand, and boosted by stronger pricing for DRAM. In addition, we foresee cost improvements and a higher-margin product mix to gradually lift margins through 2025 and beyond. The market seems to share our view, and responded positively to results and guidance, with the stock now tracking our fair value estimate.

We have consolidated our recent DeepSeek-related coverage in this note. Artificial intelligence affects companies across much of our coverage, including semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, software, utilities, and energy.

Many technology hardware stocks under our coverage plunged in Monday trading after reports of DeepSeek's R1 generative artificial intelligence model out of China offering performance parity to top US models at a much lower training cost. The iShares Semiconductor ETF was down 8% in midday trading.

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing, but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.

Micron Technology's November-quarter results met management guidance, highlighted by revenue rising 12% sequentially to $8.7 billion. The firm's outlook for the February quarter implies a 9% sequential decline in revenue, with management citing weakness in PC and mobile phone demand.

We maintain our $110 fair value estimate for shares of no-moat Micron Technology as we hold our medium-term forecast steady even after tremendous August quarter results. Micron’s quarterly results came in at or above the high end of its guidance ranges, and its November quarter guidance beat our model. The firm benefits from a broad and strong upcycle in memory chip demand, aided by AI-related demand. We believe this upswing should continue through calendar 2025. Still, we expect growth to decelerate through 2025 and forecast cyclicality for Micron in the long term, which informs our no-moat rating.

We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing, but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.