Morningstar

Carrefour: Positive Momentum Continues in Third Quarter

Consumer Defensive Sector artwork
Securities In This Article
Carrefour
(CA)

Carrefour CA reported a third-quarter trading update, with group like-for-like sales up 9%. Within this, France reported 4.3% like-for-like growth in the quarter, supported by resilient like-for-like growth across formats. Supermarkets sales were up 3.8%, but the standout performance came from the Hypermarkets segment, which was the main driver (up 4.2%), with trends for convenience stores continuing to be strong, up 5.3% on a like-for-like basis. Carrefour France reported another notable performance. Recent trends in the region confirm that execution and positioning of the business continue to yield tangible results in a key market (France) and channel (hypermarkets), driven by solid like-for-like sales growth in food (up 5.7%, while nonfood was down 6.8%).

In Latin America, Brazil was down 3.7%, driven by Atacadao (down 2.7%), because of the adverse environment of falling inflation and negative volume. Former Grupo BIG stores that are now converted to Atacadao have ramped up fast with a solid 22% like-for-like growth in the quarter. In Europe, like-for-like growth was 4.1%, with all countries except for Poland contributing to positive growth (notably Belgium’s like-for-like sales were up 7.5%).

The company has completed EUR 664 million of its EUR 800 million share-buyback program and confirmed guidance for 2023; it expects growth in EBITDA, recurring operating income, and net free cash flow in line with our estimates. We don’t expect to change our EUR 18.10 fair value estimate. At current levels, shares trade in 4-star territory.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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About the Author

Ioannis Pontikis, CFA

Director of Equity Research in Europe
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Ioannis Pontikis, CFA, is a Director of Equity Research in Europe for Morningstar*. He covers European grocers and global food and beverage companies like Tesco, Unilever, Nestle, and Danone, and manages a team of eight analysts across the Financials and Consumer sectors. He also leads Morningstar’s Equity Research Valuation Committee, advancing the firm's valuation methodology through projects such as developing new methodologies, refining our valuation model, and enhancing the efficacy of our ratings.

Before joining Morningstar in 2017, Pontikis spent six years on the buy-side, co-managing a $100M long/short equity fund and leading teams in applying machine learning to stock and equity factor selection models. He developed the fund's valuation and risk assessment framework, achieving strong risk-adjusted performance. Prior to this, Pontikis worked at Nestle S.A. in Athens, focusing on financial reporting, budgeting, and auditing proposals to improve processes.

Pontikis research has appeared in numerous media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Guardian, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung among others.

Pontikis holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration from the University of Piraeus’s and a master’s degree in accounting and finance from the London School of Economics. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and studying towards an advanced post-masters degree in portfolio and risk management.

* Morningstar Holland BV (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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