JDE Peet’s Fiscal 2022 Results in Line With January Prerelease

JDE Peet’s JDEP reported fiscal 2022 results in line with preliminary fiscal 2022 results released at the company’s strategic update on Jan. 24. Organic sales growth was up 11.3%, behind company-compiled consensus (at 13%), but broadly in line with our full-year estimate (11.8% in our model) and adjusted EBIT was 6% lower versus 4% lower in our model and 3% lower for consensus. Performance was largely in line with guidance given earlier in the year (double-digit organic sales growth in fiscal 2022, but a stable level of gross profit compared with last year as well as free cash flow of over EUR 1 billion versus EUR 1.36 billion realized). Medium- to long-term targets of 3%-5% organic sales growth, mid-single-digit organic adjusted EBIT, and 70% cash conversion are unchanged. Management confirmed guidance for fiscal 2023 with organic sales growth at the high end of its medium-term range of 3%-5% and low-single-digit organic adjusted EBIT growth compared with 4% organic growth and 5% EBIT growth in our model. Therefore, we don’t expect to materially alter our EUR 36.50 fair value estimate. JDE Peet’s is one of our top picks in European consumer packaged goods, with shares trading in 4-star territory.

From a regional perspective, CPG Europe, the most profitable segment of the group, reported organic growth of 1.8%, significantly lower than company-compiled consensus of 5.5% and our estimates driven by pricing of 14.5% and heavy volume/mix losses of negative 12.7%. The latter was a function of temporary delistings in Europe, including Germany, France, and the U.K. during price negotiations (the company aggressively hiked prices ahead of peers) and a high comparison base, with coffee consumption shifting to out-of-home channels (out-of-home business was up 26.6% in fiscal 2022). The firm said volume elasticity remained below the historical average in the segment, which is in line with Nestle’s reporting (Nespresso’s volume/mix was marginally negative).