Morningstar

Moderna Earnings: Competition Weighs on Covid and RSV Vaccine Prospects

We’ve lowered our assumed global covid vaccine sales for 2024; Moderna stock remains undervalued.

The Moderna logo is seen at the high street in Warsaw. The country is expected to experience about 3% economic growth in 2024 driven to large extend by public consumption.
Securities In This Article
Moderna Inc
(MRNA)

Key Morningstar Metrics for Moderna

What We Thought of Moderna’s Earnings

We’re maintaining our fair value estimate of $227 for Moderna MRNA despite management’s disappointing commentary about the firm’s competitiveness in the upcoming covid and RSV vaccination season, as well as lower product sales guidance for the full year. Second-quarter results were in line with our expectations, with minimal product sales of $184 million consistent with our off-season expectations in the covid vaccine market. However, management now expects $3.0 billion-$3.5 billion in net product sales for the full year (down from prior guidance of $4 billion) for its respiratory franchise, due to a combination of low European Union sales, revenue being deferred to 2025 in other international markets, and the competitive landscape in the United States.

We think management’s commentary implies Moderna is seeing strong US pricing pressure in both the established covid vaccine market (against key competitor Pfizer PFE) and the RSV vaccine market, where the company is attempting to launch newly approved mResvia against Pfizer’s Abrysvo and GSK’s GSK Arexvy, which were both introduced last season.

As a result, we’ve lowered our assumed global covid vaccine sales for 2024 from $3.7 billion to $2.7 billion and our assumed RSV vaccine sales in the US market from $500 million to $350 million. In the long run, we think Moderna can still see peak RSV vaccine sales of around $2.5 billion, as approval should eventually extend to most high-risk populations.

Moderna Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

Source: Morningstar Direct.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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About the Author

Karen Andersen, CFA

Strategist
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Karen Andersen, CFA, is a strategist, AM Healthcare, for Morningstar*. She covers biopharma firms in the US and Europe, focusing mostly on large-cap firms with foundations in biologic or gene-based medicines.

Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Andersen received a master’s degree in business administration from the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University, where she served as senior healthcare analyst for the M.A. Wright Fund and earned the distinction of Jones Scholar. She also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

She ranked first in the biotechnology industry, and had the highest score overall, in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey in 2013, the last year the survey was conducted.

Andersen holds a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry from Rice University, where she graduated magna cum laude. She is also a member of Phi Beta Kappa. She has scientific research experience in academia at both Rice University and the University of Queensland in Australia. She also worked in the healthcare industry, both at genetic testing firm Integrated Genetics (now part of LabCorp) and as a research assistant at Lexicon Genetics (now Lexicon Pharmaceuticals).

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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