Evolution Mining Ltd EVN

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A$3.64 +0.04 (1.11%)

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As of Jul 5, 2024 6:10am Delayed Price Closed

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Company Report

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Commodity Price Update Q3 2024: Value in Mineral Sands, Gold, and Thermal Coal

Jon Mills Jun 27, 2024

Base metals prices surged earlier in the June quarter of 2024 before partially reversing due to concerns over China’s economy. Iron ore prices are broadly stable despite China's struggling property market and weak infrastructure spending, leading to questions over China's steel demand. After updating our commodity price assumptions, no-moat Iluka is the cheapest miner we cover, trading 31% below its unchanged fair value estimate of AUD 9.50.

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Price vs Fair Value

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EVN is trading at a 336% premium.

Price

A$3.64

Jul 5, 2024

Fair Value

A$7.00

Apr 4, 2024

Uncertainty

High

1-Star Price: A$9.85
5-Star Price: A$5.70
Economic Moat: Rpxm
Capital Allocation: Pylrcffj

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

The company is in the first quartile of the gold cost curve, meaning it is less leveraged to changes in gold prices than its higher-cost competitors.

Bears

With roughly 85% of midcycle sales in fiscal 2028 from its Cowal, Red Lake, and Mungari mines, Evolution is dependent on production meeting expectations at these mines.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price: A$3.60
Day Range: A$3.60–3.64
52-Week Range: A$2.83–4.31
Bid/Ask: A$3.84 / A$3.46
Market Cap: A$7.23 Bil
Volume/Avg: 4.1 Mil / 9.1 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized): 24.00
Price/Sales: 2.70
Dividend Yield (Trailing): 1.10%
Dividend Yield (Forward): 1.10%
Total Yield: 1.10%

Company Profile

Evolution Mining is an Australian-based gold miner. It sold around 650,000 ounces of gold in fiscal 2023 from five wholly owned mines in Australia and Canada. Formed in 2011 via the merger of Conquest Mining and Catalpa Resources and the purchase of Newcrest Mining’s Mt Rawdon and Cracow mines, Evolution has acquired more mines and sold the generally less attractive, higher-cost mines. Cowal and Mungari were purchased in 2015, with an initial interest in Glencore’s Ernest Henry mine following in 2016, Red Lake in Canada in 2020, the rest of Ernest Henry in 2022 and an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold mine in December 2023. It had roughly 15 years of gold reserves at the end of December 2023.

Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Stock Style Box: Mid Core
Total Number of Employees: 5
Website: https://www.evolutionmining.com.au

Competitors

Valuation

Metric	EVN	PRU	KGC
Price/Earnings (Normalized)	24.00	6.83	17.84
Price/Book Value	1.87	1.56	1.69
Price/Sales	2.70	2.17	2.39
Price/Cash Flow	7.79	4.89	6.68

Price/Earnings

EVN

PRU

KGC

Financial Strength

Metric	EVN	PRU	KGC
Quick Ratio	0.53	5.36	0.33
Current Ratio	0.95	6.49	1.15
Interest Coverage	3.05	89.95	12.62

Quick Ratio

EVN

PRU

KGC

Profitability

Metric	EVN	PRU	KGC
Return on Assets (Normalized)	3.56%	22.35%	5.47%
Return on Equity (Normalized)	7.51%	27.98%	9.56%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)	6.25%	25.00%	6.92%

Return on Assets

EVN

PRU

KGC

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Gold Industry Comparables

Screen With Investor

Name	Capital Allocation	Economic Moat	Market Cap
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd ADR ZIJMY	—	Jkndd	$64.8 Bil
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class H ZIJMF	—	Rghdk	$64.8 Bil
Newmont Corp Chess Depository Interest NEMCL	—	Mvdl	$51.3 Bil
Newmont Corp NEM	Hrhhmfw	Cvf	$51.3 Bil
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd AEM	Pmwssrrrl	Dlxh	$34.8 Bil
Barrick Gold Corp GOLD	Kmpqbwlv	Dfqf	$30.7 Bil
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM	Tfsbypyv	Lngg	$25.3 Bil
Franco-Nevada Corp FNV	—	Pbrcy	$23.8 Bil
Gold Fields Ltd GFIOF	—	Wnzbj	$14.2 Bil
Kinross Gold Corp KGC	Lmykr	Xnxn	$10.4 Bil