Allegro.EU SA Ordinary Shares ALE

Morningstar Rating

Company Report

Allegro Earnings: Shares Look Attractive Despite Downbeat International Results and Slower Ad Growth

We continue to view wide-moat Allegro's current price as an attractive entry point for investors seeking high-quality exposure to e-commerce. While we've trimmed our fair value estimate to PLN 44.50 from PLN 46 after digesting earnings—largely attributable to weak results out of the firm's international segment and slower growth in its profitable advertising business than we'd hoped (albeit still up 30% annually), our reaction is less punitive than that of the market, which sent shares spiraling downward 8%-9%. We'd urge investors to consider the company as a play on the attractive Polish online commerce market in which it maintains dominant (mid-40s) market share (our estimates) with an international segment that represents a small drag on an otherwise sterling business.

Price vs Fair Value

ALE is trading at a 264% premium.
Price
PLN 36.07
Fair Value
PLN 58.30
Uncertainty
High
1-Star Price
PLN 25.89
5-Star Price
PLN 37.60
Economic Moat
Vrg
Capital Allocation
Lybvglt

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Higher costs of borrowing should deter irrational competitors like Sea Limited from targeting the Polish market over the near to medium term.

Bears

Allegro could be forced to invest more heavily behind its Smart! program over time, adding incentives like video streaming and music to compete with Amazon and Alza (Czech Republic) on more level footing.

News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
Day Range
52-Week Range
Bid/Ask
/
Market Cap
Volume/Avg
/

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
12.03
Price/Sales
3.61
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
0.00%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
0.00%
Total Yield
0.18%

Company Profile

Allegro is a large Polish holding company with a suite of complementary online retail properties including Ceneo (price comparisons), EBilet (live events tickets), We|Do (courier services), and the Mall Group (online and offline retail in adjacent Central European markets). The firm is best known for its eponymous e-commerce marketplace, which generates predominantly third-party product sales across the home and garden, electronics, health and beauty, automotive, and supermarket categories. The operator boasts nearly 50% share of the Polish e-commerce market by GMV, per our calculations and PWC data, and has built out a suite of ecosystem functionality that includes financial, logistics, and advertising services.
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Internet Retail
Stock Style Box
Mid Growth
Total Number of Employees
6,624

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
ALE
BABA
SE
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
12.0312.622,390.86
Price/Book Value
3.941.987.89
Price/Sales
3.612.043.88
Price/Cash Flow
18.4811.3628.56
Price/Earnings
ALE
BABA
SE

Financial Strength

Metric
ALE
BABA
SE
Quick Ratio
1.921.311.10
Current Ratio
2.071.411.49
Interest Coverage
2.326.29
Quick Ratio
ALE
BABA
SE

Profitability

Metric
ALE
BABA
SE
Return on Assets (Normalized)
5.28%8.55%−1.44%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
10.69%15.37%−4.07%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
8.38%12.41%−2.42%
Return on Assets
ALE
BABA
SE

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