AstraZeneca: Investor Day Reveals Optimistic 2030 Sales Guidance, but Pipeline Holds Possible Upside

We are holding steady to our AstraZeneca fair value estimate following an investor day, which highlighted 2030 sales guidance of $80 billion and 2026 core operating margins of mid-30s. While we believe the operating margin expansion by 2026 is likely, we remain skeptical regarding the 2030 sales guidance, which is almost 30% above our estimate and consensus. If Astra can achieve this long-term sales goal, then there is upside to our fair value estimate.