OPEC+ Production Cut Extensions Send Clear Signal That Oil Markets Remain Oversupplied

The complexity of OPEC’s meeting outcome from June 2 should not obscure our view that it continues to operate from a position of weakness in an oversupplied market, pointing to near-term oil price weakness. We anticipate oil prices are more likely to hit $70 a barrel (WTI) and perhaps below $65 by the end of 2024. OPEC has three separate cuts in progress at the moment, totaling 5.86 million barrels per day. A groupwide cut of about 2 million barrels per day was originally set to expire at the end of 2024 but was extended to the end of 2025. Similarly, a 1.7 million barrels per day voluntary cut by certain members was also extended to the end of 2025 from the end of 2024. Finally, a second 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary cut by certain members was extended in full for another quarter, as it was due to expire at the end of June, before gradually being phased out by September 2025. Undervalued options have been harder to find in the energy space recently, but we favor SLB, Enbridge, TC Energy, APA, and Exxon Mobil.