Tesla: Deliveries Fall 5% Year on Year During Second Quarter

Tesla reported 443,956 vehicles delivered during the second quarter, which is a 5% decline year over year versus the prior-year quarter. We've updated our model to assume lower 2024 deliveries. We now expect a slight decline versus our prior forecast for deliveries to be slightly up on the year. Separately, we've updated our model to assume higher energy storage deployments, as we expect higher growth in this business following Tesla's record 9.4 GWh deployments during the second quarter. Having updated our model to reflect these changes, we maintain our $200 fair value estimate for Tesla. Our narrow moat rating is also unchanged.