How Nvidia's new Street-high stock-price target stacks up in the chip sector

By Emily Bary

The new highest price target for Nvidia's stock implies 21% upside from Friday's close, but the most bullish targets for numerous other chip stocks suggest more room to run

Nvidia Corp. shares are up 165% so far this year, but Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland thinks they can still go much higher.

He boosted his price target on Nvidia's stock (NVDA) to $160 from $145, with the new target implying 21% upside from the stock's closing price on Friday. His target is based on a multiple of about 51.5 times his estimated adjusted earnings per share for calendar 2025.

"While this multiple is higher than the group median of 28.5x, we view it as warranted as the company is well-positioned to take advantage of flourishing end markets," Rolland wrote.

Don't miss: Will Nvidia spur a stock-split frenzy? Why companies have been waiting longer to split.

More than three-quarters of analysts polled by FactSet hold bullish ratings on Nvidia's stock. But the average price target is actually below Friday's closing price, probably because some analysts haven't updated their models for recent stock action, such as the 40%-plus rally seen in the last month alone.

And though Rolland sees the potential for Nvidia's stock to rise 21%, his target is now the highest on FactSet. There are three stocks within the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX whose average price targets imply at least 23% upside. Those are Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC), Rambus Inc. (RMBS) and Intel Corp. (INTC). Here is the entire list of stocks in the index, sorted by the 12-month upside potential implied by the consensus (or average) price targets. The table also includes potential upside based on the highest price target among analysts covering each stock.

   Company                                      Ticker   June 14 price  Consensus price target  Highest price target  Implied 12-month upside potential to cons. target  Implied 12-month upside potential to highest target 
   Lattice Semiconductor Corp.                   LSCC           $60.22                  $80.98                $88.00                                                26%                                                  46% 
   Rambus Inc.                                   RMBS           $56.95                  $76.43                $85.00                                                25%                                                  49% 
   Intel Corp.                                   INTC           $30.45                  $39.73               $100.00                                                23%                                                 228% 
   Marvell Technology Inc.                       MRVL           $73.27                  $89.79               $105.00                                                18%                                                  43% 
   STMicroelectronics N.V. ADR                   STM            $42.46                  $50.60                $62.91                                                16%                                                  48% 
   Advanced Micro Devices Inc.                   AMD           $159.63                 $190.02               $250.00                                                16%                                                  57% 
   Wolfspeed Inc.                                WOLF           $27.15                  $32.11                $52.00                                                15%                                                  92% 
   ON Semiconductor Corp.                         ON            $71.97                  $83.89               $104.00                                                14%                                                  45% 
   Microchip Technology Inc.                     MCHP           $91.35                 $102.67               $115.00                                                11%                                                  26% 
   Entegris Inc.                                 ENTG          $133.90                 $148.84               $164.00                                                10%                                                  22% 
   Analog Devices Inc.                           ADI           $231.19                 $256.55               $295.00                                                10%                                                  28% 
   MKS Instruments Inc.                          MKSI          $133.77                 $148.00               $160.00                                                10%                                                  20% 
   ASML Holding N.V. ADR                         ASML        $1,027.90               $1,114.18             $1,406.00                                                 8%                                                  37% 
   Micron Technology Inc.                         MU           $141.36                 $150.78               $240.78                                                 6%                                                  70% 
   Broadcom Inc.                                 AVGO        $1,735.04               $1,827.92             $2,100.00                                                 5%                                                  21% 
   Axcelis Technologies Inc.                     ACLS          $138.73                 $146.00               $170.00                                                 5%                                                  23% 
   NXP Semiconductors N.V.                       NXPI          $268.85                 $279.46               $370.00                                                 4%                                                  38% 
   Applied Materials Inc.                        AMAT          $237.03                 $239.00               $280.00                                                 1%                                                  18% 
   Monolithic Power Systems Inc.                 MPWR          $806.57                 $801.56               $900.00                                                -1%                                                  12% 
   Lam Research Corp.                            LRCX        $1,035.98               $1,016.45             $1,200.00                                                -2%                                                  16% 
   Qorvo Inc.                                    QRVO          $112.38                 $109.46               $128.00                                                -3%                                                  14% 
   Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ADR    TSM           $172.51                 $166.27               $183.00                                                -4%                                                   6% 
   Skyworks Solutions Inc.                       SWKS          $104.37                 $100.33               $125.00                                                -4%                                                  20% 
   KLA Corp.                                     KLAC          $824.84                 $784.98               $950.00                                                -5%                                                  15% 
   Nvidia Corp.                                  NVDA          $131.88                 $123.63               $160.00                                                -7%                                                  21% 
   Qualcomm Inc.                                 QCOM          $215.33                 $201.57               $255.00                                                -7%                                                  18% 
   Texas Instruments Inc.                        TXN           $193.90                 $180.48               $225.00                                                -7%                                                  16% 
   Teradyne Inc.                                 TER           $145.06                 $129.95               $161.00                                               -12%                                                  11% 
   United Microelectronics Corp. ADR             UMC             $8.73                   $5.10                 $5.10                                               -71%                                                 -42% 
   ASE Technology Holding Co. ADR                ASX            $11.29                     N/A                   N/A                                                N/A                                                  N/A 
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Source: FactSet 

All three of the companies that top the list have been under pressure this year, with shares of Lattice down 13% over the course of 2024 to date, Rambus shares down 18% and Intel shares off 39%.

As measured by their ratings, analysts are largely upbeat about shares of Lattice and Rambus, with 71% of analysts tracked by FactSet holding buy-equivalent ratings for each. Lattice's average price target suggests 26% upside potential, while Rambus's suggests 25% upside.

See also: Worried you missed the Nvidia bandwagon? Here are some alternative stocks.

The picture is more mixed for Intel. Though the average price target implies the potential for 23% appreciation, only 28% of the analysts surveyed by FactSet are bullish on the name. Of the 47 listed, 13 have buy-equivalent ratings, 30 have neutral ratings and four have sell ratings.

In contrast, there are 11 stocks in the PHLX Semiconductor Index whose average price targets imply negative return potential. Yet of those, many could be the reflection of a lack of recent model updates, as analysts have majority bullish ratings on seven of those stocks.

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06-17-24 1522ET

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