Simon Property Group Inc SPG

Most REITs in the US Are Trading at Significant Discounts to Fair Value

The US REIT sector remains significantly undervalued, in our perspective. While the pandemic hurt REIT valuations in 2020, the recovery of fundamentals across most sectors combined with low interest rates led to strong total returns in 2021 and early 2022. However, despite fundamentals continuing to perform well over the past two years, with many REITs reaching historical levels of net operating income growth, the sector has underperformed the broader equity markets over the past two years. We believe that the cause has been the sector’s negative correlation with interest rates as income-oriented investors rotate out of the sector, higher rates lower the value REITs can create with external growth, and property valuations fall in line with higher rates. However, we don’t believe that higher rates significantly change our fair value estimates for the sector. Additionally, interest rates are down from the October 2023 highs, and REIT share prices have generally inversely followed the movements of the US 10-year Treasury.