Ambev: Market Throwing Out Baby With Bathwater

We think it is likely that the market is throwing the baby out with the bath water after selling off

After a solid first quarter, in which beer volumes in Brazil returned to positive territory, the latest political crisis that has engulfed President Michel Temer is an unwanted setback. Whether or not he is removed from office, a weakened Temer is less likely to push through the economic and structural reforms the market was hoping for, in our opinion, and the market’s disappointment is understandable.

However, Ambev operates in a defensive category in which demand is driven by GDP growth. It remains to be seen what the economic implications of this latest political crisis are, if any, but for as long as GDP continues to recover, we remain confident in our 5% sales growth estimate for this year. We think beer demand in Brazil is more sensitive to global demand for commodities than it is to domestic political volatility, and in that regard, several leading indicators are positive. Some of Brazil’s key export commodities, including iron ore and oil, while down from their late first-quarter highs, remain above the levels of last year, which should support GDP growth.

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