Teck Earnings: Down but Still Strong; USD 40 FVE Maintained In Line With Glencore’s Proposal

While no-moat Teck’s TECK.B first-quarter 2023 earnings fell compared with the same quarter of 2022, they were still strong. Adjusted net profit after tax declined 43% to CAD 930 million, or CAD 1.78 per share. Adjusted EBITDA fell by about one third to CAD 2 billion, down from roughly CAD 3 billion. The CAD 1 billion decrease in EBITDA was driven by lower prices, lower sales volumes, and higher unit costs, partially offset by foreign exchange. Teck shareholders approved its proposal to remove its dual share class structure at its special meeting on April 26, 2023. However, after shareholder feedback, Teck won’t proceed with the proposed demerger and spinoff of its metallurgical coal operations into a new company called Elk Valley Resources, or EVR. We agree with the decision as we think the proposal was complex and didn’t offer a clean break from metallurgical coal, unlike Glencore’s latest proposal. Glencore’s proposal also includes a meaningful premium for Teck shareholders. While Teck will pursue a simpler spinoff of its metallurgical coal operations (that is, without the substantial financial liabilities that EVR would have had after separation), we think it is likely that Glencore returns with an improved proposal. It is also possible that other bidders emerge. If so, we think it is likely they will also propose a separation of metallurgical coal to satisfy those investors who prefer not to invest in fossil fuels.

We maintain our fair value estimate for Teck of USD 40 per share consistent with Glencore’s latest proposal. While costs to complete Teck’s new Quebrada Blanca 2 (QB2) copper project in Chile have again increased, the impact on our stand-alone fair value estimate for Teck of about USD 31 per share, which incorporates our latest commodity price assumptions, is immaterial. Teck’s balance sheet remains strong, with net debt of CAD 5.3 billion at end March 2023, or around 0.6 times adjusted EBITDA. It will pay a CAD 0.125 per share quarterly dividend in June.